| You'll notice that I used soccer in my example and not something more traditionally associated with betting in the U.S., such as football. A good reason exists for this: the four main spread firms all operate in England. Until very recently no means existed of placing a spread bet outside the UK. Now, however, with the advent of the internet the spread firms are going global. The internet effectively means spread betting has become deregulated. City Index, the original spread betting firm and the leader in the field, has expressed an intention of expanding overseas. Spread betting is fast becoming more accessible. I find it impossible to keep track of the number of internet sportsbooks daily professing the intention of adding a spread betting area to their websites.Advantage players typically want to know how favourable a particular game or technique is. A variety of methods have been used to try to determine the worth of a game or system. When card counting, the advantage player's staple, was first developed, the measure used was percent advantage. This is simply defined as your expectation divided by your average bet. Unfortunately percent advantage isn't of much use in explaining how much money you will win from a given opportunity. The reason is a little complicated and has to do with correct betting. The higher the ratio of a winning wager to a losing wager, the lower your bet needs to be in order for you to minimize the chances of being wiped out by an adverse streak of luck. For example, would you prefer a 10% advantage on a wager with a 10 to 1 payoff or a 5% advantage on a wager with an even payoff? The pro gambler prefers the latter opportunity. Why? Professional gamblers bet the percent of their bankroll according to their percent advantage divided by the ratio of a winning wager to a losing wager. This is known as the Kelly criterion, and it ensures that your bankroll grows at the fastest possible rate. All serious gamblers use something close to the Kelly criterion. If you play against a skilled dealer who performs no more than two riffles and interleaves the cards evenly and precisely, have a look to see what happens to the aces that are dealt when they are scooped up into the discard tray. If many aces are put back into the discard tray with clumps of tens, you will find that in the following shoe you will get more blackjacks than you would expect mathematically. This is because the riffle action tends to leave initially adjacent cards together with greater frequency than chance alone would suggest. Not only will you gain from the fact that more blackjacks are dealt, but card counters will find high counts are more advantageous, since they depend for much of their edge on blackjacks. However, use your count as you would normally.One question I often get asked when people find out I am a gambler is, "Are you a compulsive gambler?" I've lost count of the number of women who have tried to "save" me. I learned long ago it was inadvisable to explain that I have a system, because all gamblers have a system. The general public does not understand the difference between a scientific system, such as card-counting, and a system based on astrology. And why should they? I don't know much about interior decoration or fish-gutting. The advent of the internet sportsbook means that for the first time many Americans can participate in betting on the outcome of their own presidential election, a privilege previously only granted to Europeans. Elections are highly predictable and a potential source of profit for the intelligent gambler, despite the fact you can make this bet only once every four years. Nonetheless there is very little available in gambling literature that will assist you in making a correct prediction. One book which does make a serious study of presidential elections is Jacques Black's Spread Betting to Win. Black describes a model for predicting elections from a letter to the Economist magazine by a man named Paul Hiniker in 1988. |
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