| The only plausible method that could conceivably win at craps is through dice control (or perhaps, as suggested by Frank Scoblete in Beat The Craps Out Of The Casinos, by finding someone who can). I would not rule out the possibility that dice control is possible. But even if you can do it, ascertaining your exact edge is very difficult and it's not easy to determine how to best exploit your edge. Moreover, players suspected of dice control can find very extreme countermeasures taken against them. It's also a little known fact that dice control is prohibited by the letter of the law, though perhaps not its spirit. John Robison has just completed a fascinating history of the slot machine for the New Chance & Circumstance magazine. For anyone with even a passing interest in the subject this is an invaluable reference, and I hope John will publish it formally at some point. (Editor's note: My history of the slot machine will appear in my book The Truth about Slots from Huntington Press next year.) Given the evolution of the basic mechanical slot machine into today's multi-coin electronic mega-jackpot monsters, it's fun to speculate on the next step. The next step is, in fact, already with us. You can now play slots on the internet. It's been the case since the first personal computers were developed that you could play slot machine simulations. But this was always for virtual, "fantasy" money. Now, by handing over your credit card details you can play for real money online. Now, at the moment playing slots online is a pretty joyless affair. Even a dyed-in-the-wool advantage-play purist like me can appreciate the benefits of the real-life slot fix. The spinning of the wheels, the lights, the rattle of coins in the tray--a satisfying, though impoverishing process. A million little old ladies can't be wrong. But internet slots, well, you get delays, broken connections, primitive graphics, and, to top it all, generally worse odds than real-world casino slots. Given how bad the odds are with most real-world casino slots, this is very bad indeed. Nevertheless, things are improving all the time. Give it a few years. Competition amongst software developers is frenzied right now. It seems like every few days a new internet casino with some technical edge over the opposition starts up. There is one vital development which I believe will have a really serious effect not just on internet slots, or on internet gambling, or even on gambling itself, but on the whole character of the internet. And it's coming, believe me. When people learn you gamble professionally, you find people start asking you the same questions. "How much have you won this year? How often do you win? How often do you lose?" Often people assume that an advantage player simply walks into a casino and wins as many chips as he can get away with. There are a couple of techniques where you can profit without risk, such as silver mining or arbitrage, but generally speaking it is not as simple as people fondly imagine. It's very rare to find someone who understands the concept of fluctuation. The uninitiated never understand that a professional gambler might lose for months on end, yet still profit overall. Usually this is mistaken for compulsive gambling behaviour. People scoff when they hear about how even the most skilled card counters can theoretically have losing years. Part of the confusion is due to an imaginary concept most of the gambling texts refer to called the "long run". It is usually explained that a gambler who has the best of it will endure losing periods, but that overall he will end up ahead. |
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